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Michael Seto
Apple will become a $200 billion company, as measured by revenue, in the next five years, says Apple analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray.
2010-12-17
If Apple's sales hit $200 billion, Apple's stock could rocket to more than $1,000 per share. Apple's revenue is forecast to be $89 billion for 2011.
At our IGNITION: Future of Media conference, Munster gave a big presentation laying out how Apple could reach that revenue target.
The key thing to remember: We're in the early stages of a major transition to mobile platforms. Apple is leading the way and defining the trends.
Apple is not a "gatekeeper," but it will be defining how we consume media for a long time.
Gene Munster/PiperJaffray
"This blows me away," says Munster. The company is no longer a Mac company, it's a mobile company. Mobile has grown 13X in the last eight years.
Gene Munster/PiperJaffray
He talked to 450 people on iPad launch weekend about why they were buying an iPad. The answers were varied, but surfing the web was number one response.
Gene Munster/PiperJaffray
People are using video on the iPad a lot, and "video is fundamentally changing because of these tablets." The iPad is more intimate since you're focused on video.
Gene Munster/PiperJaffray
Apple can't repeat what it did in music with video, though. Apple will have a smaller share of video world, because other devices will be coming.
Gene Munster/PiperJaffray
How important are apps? Consumers' favorite apps are on all platforms. So apps aren't super important. People will buy based on hardware.
Gene Munster/PiperJaffray
How will Apple maintain a lead in hardware? Apple starts consumers young, and cheap, then moves them up over time. Start with an iPod Touch when you're younger. Then you buy an iPhone, or iPad when you're older. "It's a unique position Apple has."
Gene Munster/PiperJaffray
Who is buying the iPad? Initially people with a lot of money...
Gene Munster/PiperJaffray
...but there's a shift going on. The demographic of people buying iPads is different from other Apple products. It's people who couldn't afford Macs in the past. "Ultimately, the iPad is reaching a new market."
Gene Munster/PiperJaffray
How is it doing competitively? Munster did a "buzz survey" of 65 people. Most preferred iPad, most thought the Galaxy Tab was overpriced, and most didn't like Adobe Flash, saying it slowed the web down.
Gene Munster/PiperJaffray
Over time how does it play out? Android will gain traction. iPad will go from 90% today to 44% in 2012.
Gene Munster/PiperJaffray
Just like Android caught up with Apple in smartphones, it will catch up in tablets.
Gene Munster/PiperJaffray
There will not be one winner, though. This is not Microsoft versus Apple. It's not the 80's all over again.
Gene Munster/PiperJaffray
Apple and Android will both win, but BlackBerry, Nokia, and Microsoft will lose.
Gene Munster/PiperJaffray
This is still the early stage of a major revolution. If Apple has 26% of the market in 2015, that's 185 million iPhones sold, compared to 50 million today. Apple's strength in mobile positions it to become a $200 billion company.
