Science

Here's what could happen to Earth over the next 500 years

Read in app
Surging
REUTERS/Stringer

Hey there! Nice to meet you, I'm from the future.

I live in the 26th century, deep in the Anthropocene Era.

Humanity is officially the greatest climate driver on Earth, and has been for awhile. It's a dubious honor if you could see the planet from here.

A lot has happened over the last 500 years. Here are the highlights — if you can call them that.

Let's start with the year 2100, when things really started getting hot — on average, almost 4 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than in 2016.

nasa climate change projections 2100
NASA

Parts of Africa, South America, and India often averaged over 110 degrees during the summer, killing thousands of people to each year from heat-related causes.

wildfire heat wave india
Reuters

Glaciers in High Mountain Asia — an area that included the Himalayas — shrank to 30% of their 21st-century size.

glacier himalaya bhutan reuters
Adnan Abidi/Reuthers

The loss of that stable source of meltwater, coupled with huge droughts and continued population growth, meant that water resources in Asia all but collapsed.

RTX1JIBC
China Daily/REUTERS

Source: Tech Insider

Huge glaciers in the European Alps completely vanished.

glacier
REUTERS/Denis Balibouse

Source: Reuters

The oceans became hotter and more acidic. Your grandkids never got to see the Great Barrier Reef, or any living coral reef outside an aquarium.

diving great barrier reef australia
REUTERS/HO/Great Barrier Reef National Park Authority

Source: CNN

Sea levels rose 3 feet and hundreds of thousands of people were displaced. The island nations of Tuvalu, Kiribati, and the Marshall Islands became uninhabitable.

Kiribati Aerial
Edvac/Wikimedia Commons

Millions of coastline-dwellers became climate refugees — including 13 million Americans. Disney World and Disney Land both disappeared underwater.

disney world

Source: Huffington Post

During the 22nd century, the world's population reached 9.5 billion people. The strain on resources — food, water, and energy — sparked a new generation of conflicts.

hong kong
REUTERS/Damir Sagolj

The good news is that we made it to Mars. The European Union, Russia, China, and the US managed to send the first multinational team in 2050.

mars
Bryan Versteeg / THE CANADIAN PRESS

Source: NASA

But after a 150 years of successful Mars colonization, the most powerful solar storm ever recorded hit the Earth and Mars. Our electrical grid failed, communications went down, and — by the time we restored everything years later — the colony had gone silent.

solar flare
Wikimedia Commons

In the 23rd century, we reached the zenith of the sixth mass extinction. Amphibians were the hardest-hit. We lost over 1,000 species of frogs, newts, salamanders, and more.

endangered frog reuters
Alberto Lowe/Reuters

Source: Nature

But they weren't the only ones. Thousands of species of birds, mammals, and insects were wiped from the face of the Earth.

An endangered silverback mountain gorilla from the Nyakamwe-Bihango family looks for food within the forest in Virunga national park near Goma in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, May 3, 2014. REUTERS/Kenny Katombe
Thomson Reuters

Sometime between 2200 and 2300, things got really bad. The Greenland Ice Sheet collapsed and melted, causing sea levels to rise 20 feet.

GreenlandGlacier_new_lrg_1
NASA

The Middle East, already wracked by ethnic and resource-driven conflict, became inhospitable. Canada began a massive resettlement plan, opening up the former tundra to climate refugees.

pakistan drought climate change getty
Paula Bronstein/Getty

Source: Mic, TIME

South America and Africa, the worlds most fertile regions three centuries ago, lost a fifth of the land suitable for farming. Farming moved to the US, China, and Russia, which all gained arable land.

farming russia hay snow reuters
Ilya Naymushin/Reuters

In the 24th century, Mars finally got back in touch with us. But with 11 billion people on Earth, bringing the colonists back was not an option.

Animation of ExoMars spacecraft descending toward Mars 3
Reuters/ESA

But they weren’t interested in coming back to our crowded, resource-drained rock, anyway. They just needed a larger gene pool. Settlement missions started back up again.

the martian hermes spaceship neil tyson viral video
YouTube/ARES: live

Without the pressure of an ice sheet, fault lines all over Greenland’s crust came loose. Earthquakes and tsunamis battered the North Atlantic.

tidal wave tsunami crash dangerous sydney australia
REUTERS/David Gray

Source: The Guardian

At the end of the 24th century, Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier receded past the continental shelf that surrounds it, speeding up its already-rapid collapse.

Thwaites Glacier
Thwaites Glacier NASA

And by the end of the 25th century, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet finally collapsed after years of slowly melting. Sea levels rose again, this time by another 30 feet.

Antarctica
Andreas Kambanis on Flickr

Source: Science

There's more to come, though. The effects of unmitigated emissions will continue far beyond my lifetime in 2516, possibly for thousands of years.

boat drought asia reuters
Siswowidodo/Antara Foto/Reuters

Source: Nature

It didn't have to be this way. Limiting global warming to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit wouldn't have solved everything, but it could have avoided a tipping point that claimed millions of lives and displaced billions more.

children ocean playing reuters
Lucy Nicholson/Reuthers

Source: Nature, The Guardian

Read next

Sarah Kramer is a science writer based in New York City. She holds a Master of Science in Journalism from Northwestern, where she was a Comer Scholar specializing in climate-change journalism. She has written about nuclear power in Utah, environmental justice on Chicago’s South Side, mysterious shipwrecks in the upper Midwest, and scammers on Amazon. Her reporting has received awards from the Society of Professional Journalists and the J.D. Crain, Jr. Foundation.Her work can found on Business Insider, Atlas Obscura, Motherboard, and in several permanent halls at the American Museum of Natural History, including the Gottesman Hall of Planet Earth and the upcoming Mignone Halls of Gems and Minerals.Follow her on Twitter at @sarahbkramer.